Our betting expert Jones Knows provides his insight and best bets for the Premier League fixtures and makes a case for Brighton to win at Man City.
Everton vs West Ham, Saturday 3pm
Graham Potter is making an impact at West Ham in terms of getting his philosophies across, albeit results remain inconsistent. Potter demands his team to control games through possession, something that the Hammers are doing without really turning that into creating much in the way of attacking threat.
Potter will hope that goals will come in time but for now, it's worth trying to profit from this lack of attacking spark. It can be done for this game by backing Everton double chance and Everton to win the corner count, which brings out a 5/4 shot using the BuildABet function with Sky Bet.
David Moyes' men are unbeaten in eight games, proving a very tough nut for opposition defences to crack while West Ham's corner numbers since Potter took charge are very low. In eight games they've averaged just 2.88 corners per game, losing the corner race in six of those encounters.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6!
Nottingham Forest's record against teams in the bottom half of the Premier League makes them a very interesting betting proposition at Evens with Sky Bet.
From 12 games this season, they have delivered the goods 11 times, drawing the other against Wolves. Even the underlying numbers back up those performances with a per 90 expected goals for return of 1.72 and an expected goals against per 90 figure of 0.8. Those types of differentials are what you expect from a top-four chasing side. That's exactly what Forest are.
- A win is on the cards for Forest if you ask Super 6 players, but there's even support between Forest winning by a 2-1 scoreline (280,000) and a 2-0 scoreline (280,000)
We've seen enough from Ipswich now to know they're just not up to this level, taking just one point from their last eight Premier League games and keeping just one clean sheet in 23.
Forest are a cracking bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Nottingham Forest to win (Evens with Sky Bet)
Manchester City vs Brighton, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6!
Manchester City are 1/2 with Sky Bet for a top-four finish and Brighton are 9/1.
I know which bet I'd rather back - and it's not Pep Guardiola's side.
- Both teams to score is looking likely in a close game that will go the way of Man City, with around 390,000 Super 6 players predicting the current champions to win 2-1
There could be a storm ahead off the pitch with a decision possibly coming this month on their alleged financial irregularity charges - but even on the pitch they still look a team lost and mentally scarred for what's happened this season. They've lost 15 of their last 30 games across all competitions.
Over the last 20 games in the Premier League and Champions League their attacking process has shown signs of struggle with just a 1.43 per 90 expected goals return racked up. That figure was at 2.18 per 90 when they won the treble two seasons ago.
Meanwhile, Brighton have found consistency and cohesion under Fabian Hurzeler, winning nine of their last 11 games. If you take out that freak 7-0 Forest result from those 11 games, they have conceded just six goals in 10 games to an expected goals against per 90 of just 0.8.
So, here we have an underrated defence in Brighton up against an overrated attack in Man City. That makes the Seagulls the obvious play at 6/5 with Sky Bet on the double chance.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Southampton vs Wolves, Saturday 3pm
Wolves may end up being very fortunate that the standard of the three promoted teams is so low that they'll stay up by default. Vitor Pereira has made them tighter defensively, but it's come at a cost to their attacking output which is suffering and will struggle to see any positive impact with Matheus Cunha still banned.
They lacked ideas, imagination and played a very safe game against Everton, where they could have gone late into the night without scoring such was their timid attacking approach after the break.
Of course, Premier League defences don't come more giving than Southampton's - they've conceded 68 goals this season. Yet, without Cunha this Wolves team may struggle for inspiration at various points in this encounter.
I wouldn't trust them at Evens with Sky Bet to win this, which makes Southampton a tentative selection on the double chance at 4/5.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Bournemouth vs Brentford, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6!
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This should be a great watch - that's normally the case whenever Bournemouth take to the field.
I usually don't need any second invitations to back Andoni Iraola's men but I'm a little cold on them here at the prices where 7/10 with Sky Bet looks skinny on the home win.
Brentford have a very strong head-to-head record over Iraola's team, having been able to stop his football from flourishing in their three Premier League meetings, with the Bees winning twice and drawing the other. They scored seven goals in those three meetings, too.
It's that goal threat that has led me to Yoane Wissa's price of 2/1 with Sky Bet to score at any time. He's an excellent finisher and has been responsible for scoring three of those seven goals Brentford have hit against the Cherries.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2
Arsenal vs Chelsea, Sunday 1.30pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6!
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As someone who has backed Arsenal for the title, knowing our fate is a bit of a blessing and relief. Despite the Gunners obviously dropping their levels this season for a variety of reasons, they had been lurking in the shadow of Liverpool, waiting to pounce, therefore giving us Arsenal backers hope. It's that hope that kills you of course. That's now in the bin.
Liverpool now need just 16 more points to clinch the Premier League title and could be champions as early as April 12.
Motivation levels for the Gunners will surely drop with little to play for now and that, added to their clear issues in attack, make this a great spot for Chelsea to potentially produce a big performance on the road. An away win can be backed at 100/30 with Sky Bet.
Cole Palmer has somehow not scored or assisted in his last seven Premier League appearances - his worst run for Chelsea. Prior to his current run, he had been involved in eight goals in nine Premier League appearances. This looks to time to catch him with 11/8 on offer with Sky Bet for him to score or assist.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Fulham vs Tottenham, Sunday 1.30pm
Have Tottenham stopped playing Ange-ball?
That is a genuine question we must ponder. The swashbuckling and relentless attacking patterns we saw during Ange Postecoglou's first 10 games in charge last season are now just a distant memory. They were creating 2.4 big chances per game back then to a backdrop of 17.8 shots per game. It was exciting.
Well, compare that to what they've produced in their last 15 games and there's an argument to suggest Ange-ball is no more. That big chance creation figure is down to 1.4 per game and they've only averaged 11.67 shots per game across that 15-game sample size. They were second-best against Bournemouth last weekend, pulling on some lady luck and some bizarre decision-making from Kepa Arrizabalaga to pinch themselves a point.
Fulham are a savagely organised team defensively under Marco Silva and it's easy to foresee them limiting this flagging Spurs attack to crumbs in terms of chances created. The home win looks good at Evens with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
Carabao Cup final - Liverpool vs Newcastle, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6!
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My instincts initially wanted to get against Liverpool with them dominating the outright betting at just 3/10 with Sky Bet to lift the trophy. But a quick scan of Eddie Howe's record with Newcastle against Liverpool and Manchester City completely put me off that idea. From 18 games against those two elite teams, Newcastle have won just once, losing 14 times and conceding 2.4 goals per game to a backdrop of 18.5 shots per game.
I'm heading to the goals market instead then.
Every time a final comes around at Wembley, I do think opposing goals at that stadium in that environment of high stakes is a sustainable long-term betting strategy. I'm convinced Wembley has the potential just to sap the momentum out of a game.
In the last 41 domestic and European matches played at Wembley, the average goals per 90 stands at 1.94 goals in normal time over 41 games. And there's only been four games where the goal line has gone over 3.5 from those 41 matches. An incredibly profitable trend to follow.
Another piece of evidence to throw into the low-scoring theory for this match is related to how Premier League clubs have fared in their next game after being knocked out of the Champions League in extra-time or penalties. Exactly what Liverpool are facing here.
And from the last nine occasions, eight of those nine matches went under 2.5 goals and the total match goals in those nine games averaged just 1.6 per 90.
Yes, nine games is a very small sample size but I think it makes perfect sense that a team that have been both mentally and physically fatigued in a Champions League knockout game are going to feel the effects of that in their next game.
Under 2.5 goals at 5/4 with Sky Bet it is then.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-0 (Liverpool to win on penalties) | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Under 2.5 goals (5/4 with Sky Bet)
Leicester vs Manchester United, Sunday 7pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6!
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With Patrick Dorgu still suspended, Noussair Mazraoui will have to fill in down the right flank in the wing-back role. It's a position he's not overly suited to, especially when asked to join in with the attacking sequences but he is a safe pair of hands. A betting angle to note when he does play in this role is his fouls committed data - which is spiking.
He's made 18 fouls in his last 10 starts when playing as the right wing-back, clearing the two or more fouls line on six occasions. Those numbers make the 6/4 with Sky Bet on him committing two or more fouls again a value play as just a 40 per cent probability underplays the true probability which is nearer 55 per cent.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1
Jones Knows' best bet...
- 1pt double on Nottingham Forest to beat Ipswich & under 2.5 goals in Carabao Cup final (7/2 with Sky Bet)
